From the latest Cushman & Wakefield Capital Markets Update:
“We frequently get asked about the status of the wall of CMBS maturities. Based on Bloomberg’s CMBS Balloon Risk Analysis, the amount of CMBS debt maturing in each of the following years is: 2015 – $78.7B, 2016 – $142.5B, 2017 – $130.9B, 2018 – $45.0B. These numbers include maturities with and without extensions and loans with ARD. The pending maturities look meaningfully less than often quoted because many loans have already been defeased or modified.
Morgan Stanley estimates $125B of private-label CMBS issuance for 2015 comprised of $80B conduit and $45B SASB and floaters. A bear case scenario where insurance companies are more competitive for larger loans is estimated to be $100B and a bull case scenario where M&A activity drives SASB and floaters is estimated to be $140B.
US real estate values in aggregate as measured by Moody’s/RCA Commercial Property Price Index surpassed the previous high from December 2007 during September 2014 by 0.26%. Major market prices are up approximately 13% from the previous highs, while non-major markets are still off by more than 10% from previous highs. During 2015, we expect to see offshore and core investors continue to seek safety in the major markets, while investors seeking yield continue to chase opportunities in secondary and tertiary markets.”